Analysts suspect UNIFIL attack linked to pressure on Syria

THE DAILY STAR :: News :: Politics :: Analysts suspect UNIFIL attack linked to pressure on Syria.

BEIRUT: Friday’s bomb attack that targeted a UNIFIL patrol in south Lebanon, wounding five French peacekeepers, is intended to send “a political message” to Western countries, mainly France, which are stepping up pressure on Syria to halt its violent crackdown on protesters demanding the ouster of President Bashar Assad, political analysts said Friday.

Lebanon’s top leaders and political parties, including Hezbollah, have condemned the bombing, the third this year targeting patrols of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon. President Michel Sleiman called on French peacekeeping forces to stay in Lebanon and vowed to find those responsible for the attack.

“This terrorist attack is aimed at pressuring these [French] troops to withdraw and pave the way for the return of terrorist activities,” Sleiman told a joint news conference with his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkseyan in the Armenian capital Yerevan.

Retired Lebanese Army Gen. Elias Hanna said the attack on UNIFIL was “directly linked” to the Western – and mainly French – position on the unrest in Syria.

“Definitely, the attack is a political message linked to the situation in Syria. The attack is enough to send a political message but not enough to change the rules of engagement with UNIFIL in the south,” Hanna, a strategic analyst, told The Daily Star.

Carol Maalouf, a political analyst, also linked the attack to the European Union’s sanctions on Syria.

“What happened today was not an accident. It was a premeditated attack against the international community through UNIFIL. The attack is a clear message to the governments of these [European] countries, mainly France, because of its heavy involvement in the Lebanese and Syrian affairs,” Maalouf, a lecturer in political science and political history of Lebanon at Notre Dame University, told The Daily Star.

“It is also a response to the European Union’s imposition of economic and political sanctions on Syria,” she added.

Five French soldiers and a Lebanese civilian were wounded when a bomb struck a U.N. peacekeeping vehicle near the Lebanese coastal city of Tyre.

The attack took place amid heightened tension over the nine-month popular revolt against Assad’s 11-year rule, with politicians and diplomats warning the unrest could spill over into Lebanon.

The bombing came against the backdrop of Arab, U.S. and EU economic sanctions imposed on Syria to force it to halt its military campaign against protesters which, according to the United Nations, has left more than 4,000 people dead since the uprising began in mid-March.

Asked who could be behind the “political message,” Hanna, who teaches political science at the American University of Beirut and Notre Dame University, said it could be anyone starting from Israel, Syria to Hezbollah. He said Salafist organizations, which have a totally different agenda, could also be involved in the attack.

Hanna said the three attacks that targeted UNIFIL this year had not become a pattern. He added that so far the presence of UNIFL was essential for Syria, Hezbollah and Israel.

“But if such attacks recurred, causing heavy losses among UNIFIL troops, this would mean that there is a policy to drive UNIFIL out of the country. It would mean that such attacks are not carried out by organizations, but by states,” Hanna said. He warned that a UNIFIL pullout from the south would lead to a vacuum which would eventually lead to a confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.

Maalouf said it was significant that the U.N. peacekeepers being targeted were not from Malaysia or Indonesia, but from European countries from Italy and France.

“The attack happened in an area where Syria’s allies have control,” Maalouf said, referring to Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. “It is highly unlikely that security breaches will take place in south Lebanon without the knowledge of the two main parties that control the area – Hezbollah and Amal,” she said.

“The other possibility is that the security breaches take place without the knowledge of Hezbollah and Amal, signaling that the two parties have no control over the area. This would be very bad for the two parties,” Maalouf added.

Maalouf said that as the Syrian revolution forges ahead, “we might witness more of such incidents in the future.”

Talal Atrissi, an expert on Iran and Middle East affairs, said although the attack on UNIFIL could be linked to the Western sanctions on Syria, “there is a strong possibility that Al-Qaeda could be behind it.”

“Al-Qaeda has more than once issued threats against UNIFIL troops, considering them as occupation forces. Still, I don’t rule out the second possibility that the attack is linked to the Western and EU pressure on Syria,” Atrissi, a lecturer at the Lebanese University, told The Daily Star.

But Atrissi said the attack would not lead to the destabilization of Lebanon or a UNIFIL pullout. “It’s a limited incident … a political message,” he added.

UNIFIL patrols have been the targets of a string of unclaimed roadside bomb attacks in recent years, including two this year.