Shmuel Rosner, Chief U.S. Correspondent Hamas in the Palestinian coalition?
Yes and no A day of information-gathering in Washington about the U.S. and the upcoming Palestinian election was somewhat frustrating, as it resulted in more questions than answers. In any case, here is Rosner’s guide to Palestinian unknowns as seen from DC. Coalition It all depends on the coalition the Palestinians will decide to form after the election, but if you think you know what they’re going to do, you might be in for a surprise. Just a week ago, the PA representative in Washington, Afif Safieh, told me his prediction was a Fatah-left coalition leaving Hamas as a „respectable and active opposition.” However, today I heard the opposite. Leading Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki met with some journalists at the United States Institute of Peace and said he thought a Fatah-Hamas coalition is more likely. Whom should we trust? An expert on this matter told me that neither of them can speak for Abu Mazen. Their guess is as good as yours. Prime Minister The first decision Abu Mazen will have to make after the elections is the one concerning the nomination of prime minister. The dilemma is real: An old-guard person, like Nabil Sha’ath, or the more exciting (and internationally acceptable) Salam Fayad. The nominee will have to get a vote of confidence from the new parliament and be able to form a government. It’s not at all clear if Sha’ath is in a position to get the necessary votes, nor is it clear if Fayad can. A compromise might be in the cards – meaning someone like Rawhi Fattouh. Can he operate in a manner that is acceptable to the Europeans and the Americans when it comes to managing the PA budget? Government If the new prime minister chooses to include Hamas ministers in the government, what kind of Hamas members is he going to pick? Is it going to be a hardcore card-carrying member of the party, or someone who ran on the Hamas ticket but can’t be linked directly to any other movement activities? The second choice will present a dilemma to the U.S. and Israel, who have already said they will not negotiate with any government that include Hamas members. Budget The PA is undergoing the biggest budgetary crisis it has ever known, said someone familiar with the numbers. In Gaza, many Fatah members have been added to the payroll of the security forces after threatening PA officials that if they don’t get a salary, nothing will stop them from making trouble. In the end of December they got the money, since no one would take on the responsibility of saying ‘No’ and endangering the election process. But at the end of January someone will have to do it, and some people might find themselves without salaries. If this issue is not resolved, said the knowledgeable source, the PA might collapse, because there’s no more money coming in and no more money to spend. Disarmament Shikaki predicts that the major bargaining formula that will enable Abu Mazen to invite Hamas into the government will be that of power in exchange for disarmament. If this is true, it will present another dilemma to the U.S. and to Israel. Can they stand Hamas if it has no weapons? Negotiations Hamas, said Shikaki, prefers a continuation of the current situation, in which Israel takes unilateral steps, over negotiations. But if there is no peace process, the power of Fatah within Palestinian society will continue eroding. Shikaki presented a new study from which one can conclude that Palestinian society is now more moderate and ready for compromise than it has been in the past. Nonetheless, a paradox is clearly evident: Palestinian society is both pro-peace and pro-Hamas, because it is tired of the corruption and impotence of Fatah leadership. Numbers Gaza, Shikaki said, is „100 percent Hamas” – no less. His prediction, which he shared in a presentation at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this morning and with some State Department officials yesterday, is 36-38 seats for Hamas (out of 132). A poll presented this morning by Dr. Nabil Kukali foresees 36 percent for Fatah and 27 percent for Hamas. Almost 80 percent of Palestinians favor the resumption of negotiations with Israel. A senior Palestinian operative in the West Bank said this morning that Fatah is now doing better than one can see in the polls. No danger of Hamas victory, he calmly predicted. A Washington official said: What’s the rush? All we have to do is wait one more week. U.S. The administration is now firm both in public and in private: We will not talk to a government that includes Hamas. But what if Abu Mazen decides to go and form such a coalition anyway? Cutting ties with the PA altogether would be tempting, but runs contrary to the instincts of State Department officials. Some predict that they will have to find a face-saving way to keep talking to someone who’s in charge. „Promises made before an election can’t be trusted,” said a concerned Israeli official. „Not if made by the politicians running for office, nor if made by the State Department, trying to influence the outcome of the election process.”
Yes and no A day of information-gathering in Washington about the U.S. and the upcoming Palestinian election was somewhat frustrating, as it resulted in more questions than answers. In any case, here is Rosner’s guide to Palestinian unknowns as seen from DC. Coalition It all depends on the coalition the Palestinians will decide to form after the election, but if you think you know what they’re going to do, you might be in for a surprise. Just a week ago, the PA representative in Washington, Afif Safieh, told me his prediction was a Fatah-left coalition leaving Hamas as a „respectable and active opposition.” However, today I heard the opposite. Leading Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki met with some journalists at the United States Institute of Peace and said he thought a Fatah-Hamas coalition is more likely. Whom should we trust? An expert on this matter told me that neither of them can speak for Abu Mazen. Their guess is as good as yours. Prime Minister The first decision Abu Mazen will have to make after the elections is the one concerning the nomination of prime minister. The dilemma is real: An old-guard person, like Nabil Sha’ath, or the more exciting (and internationally acceptable) Salam Fayad. The nominee will have to get a vote of confidence from the new parliament and be able to form a government. It’s not at all clear if Sha’ath is in a position to get the necessary votes, nor is it clear if Fayad can. A compromise might be in the cards – meaning someone like Rawhi Fattouh. Can he operate in a manner that is acceptable to the Europeans and the Americans when it comes to managing the PA budget? Government If the new prime minister chooses to include Hamas ministers in the government, what kind of Hamas members is he going to pick? Is it going to be a hardcore card-carrying member of the party, or someone who ran on the Hamas ticket but can’t be linked directly to any other movement activities? The second choice will present a dilemma to the U.S. and Israel, who have already said they will not negotiate with any government that include Hamas members. Budget The PA is undergoing the biggest budgetary crisis it has ever known, said someone familiar with the numbers. In Gaza, many Fatah members have been added to the payroll of the security forces after threatening PA officials that if they don’t get a salary, nothing will stop them from making trouble. In the end of December they got the money, since no one would take on the responsibility of saying ‘No’ and endangering the election process. But at the end of January someone will have to do it, and some people might find themselves without salaries. If this issue is not resolved, said the knowledgeable source, the PA might collapse, because there’s no more money coming in and no more money to spend. Disarmament Shikaki predicts that the major bargaining formula that will enable Abu Mazen to invite Hamas into the government will be that of power in exchange for disarmament. If this is true, it will present another dilemma to the U.S. and to Israel. Can they stand Hamas if it has no weapons? Negotiations Hamas, said Shikaki, prefers a continuation of the current situation, in which Israel takes unilateral steps, over negotiations. But if there is no peace process, the power of Fatah within Palestinian society will continue eroding. Shikaki presented a new study from which one can conclude that Palestinian society is now more moderate and ready for compromise than it has been in the past. Nonetheless, a paradox is clearly evident: Palestinian society is both pro-peace and pro-Hamas, because it is tired of the corruption and impotence of Fatah leadership. Numbers Gaza, Shikaki said, is „100 percent Hamas” – no less. His prediction, which he shared in a presentation at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this morning and with some State Department officials yesterday, is 36-38 seats for Hamas (out of 132). A poll presented this morning by Dr. Nabil Kukali foresees 36 percent for Fatah and 27 percent for Hamas. Almost 80 percent of Palestinians favor the resumption of negotiations with Israel. A senior Palestinian operative in the West Bank said this morning that Fatah is now doing better than one can see in the polls. No danger of Hamas victory, he calmly predicted. A Washington official said: What’s the rush? All we have to do is wait one more week. U.S. The administration is now firm both in public and in private: We will not talk to a government that includes Hamas. But what if Abu Mazen decides to go and form such a coalition anyway? Cutting ties with the PA altogether would be tempting, but runs contrary to the instincts of State Department officials. Some predict that they will have to find a face-saving way to keep talking to someone who’s in charge. „Promises made before an election can’t be trusted,” said a concerned Israeli official. „Not if made by the politicians running for office, nor if made by the State Department, trying to influence the outcome of the election process.”
