After three weeks of an unfettered rise in the polls, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s Kadima party is changing direction and beginning to slide backward. A Haaretz-Channel 10 poll carried out Wednesday night by Dialog, under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs, found that if elections were held now, Kadima would win 35 seats, four seats fewer than last week, and Labor would win two more seats, bringing it to 24. The Likud stayed stable at 12 seats. Sharon associates said the loss is a slightly belated result of the „Hanegbi-Mofaz effect,” a reference to two senior Likud officials – Tzachi Hanegbi and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz -who switched their allegiance to Kadima last week and apparently deterred some Labor voters who had been willing to support Sharon’s party. The poll, which based its results on the responses of 500 people, appears to indicate that Labor’s gain came at Kadima’s expense. However, it is not just voters who usually align themselves with Labor who are leaving Kadima. The poll shows that some 20 percent of Likud voters who switched to Kadima shortly after Sharon founded it have left in the last few days. Those voters did not return to the Likud, choosing instead to disperse their votes among other parties. On the other hand, Labor voters who were apparently deterred by the presence of Hanegbi and Mofaz on Kadima’s ticket have returned home, to Labor and its chairman, Amir Peretz. One of the seats Kadima lost apparently went to Avigdor Lieberman’s far-right Yisrael Beiteinu faction. Yisrael Beiteinu won seven seats in this poll, compared to five in the last survey. Last night’s poll was conducted the day after the publication of the Newsweek article that included comments by Kadima pollster Kalman Gayer, who said Sharon would theoretically be willing to compromise on Jerusalem and give the Palestinians a state on 90 percent of West Bank territory. When asked who they believe more, Gayer or Sharon, who denied the plans attributed to him, 47 percent of the respondents said they believe Gayer and 28 percent said they believe the prime minister. This is particularly bad for Sharon, whose credibility has been highly rated in many polls. In light of reports of the „Iranian threat,” the poll asked respondents who they think would be best able to contend with the threat posed to Israel. Sharon heads the list at 43 percent, followed by Netanyahu, Peretz and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom. On this issue, 42 percent of Labor voters picked Sharon, and only 17 percent chose Peretz. Netanyahu victory in Likud primary assured by large margin Six days ahead of Likud party primaries, MK Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory in next week’s Likud primary is virtually assured, as he enjoys the support of 40% of Likud central committee voters, according to another Haaretz-Channel 10-Dialog poll conducted by Prof. Camil Fuchs on Tuesday night. According to the poll, Netanyahu’s closest competitor in the race, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, has the support of only 23% of the voters, followed by MK Moshe Feiglin with 9%, and Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz with 2%; 13% do not yet know who they support, or do not support any of the candidates, and it is likely that at least some of them will vote for Netanyahu. The only things that could prevent a Netanyahu victory over Shalom in Monday’s first round of voting are very low turnout or very poor organization in the Netanyahu camp, matched by a high turnout of Shalom supporters and excellent voting-day organization. If a winner is not determined Monday, a second round of voting will be held on December 26, in which Netanyahu is expected to defeat Shalom by a margin of 46%-29%. Among those polled who said they would definitely vote in Monday’s primary, support for Netanyahu went up to 46%, compared to 24% for Shalom, 11% for Feiglin and 2% for Katz. Likud sources unaffiliated with a particular camp in the party were surprised by the wide margin indicated by the poll, saying the feeling in Likud branches recently has been that Shalom was gaining momentum, especially after Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz defected to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s Kadima party, as Mofaz’s supporters are expected to vote for Shalom.
BPI-info
BPI-info
