From Washington to Jerusalem, is there room for optimism?

Whatever is agreed behind closed doors between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the U.S. president on the Iranian issue will be the determining factor as to whether Obama’s visit was a success • Meanwhile, Netanyahu has to decide in which direction to take his third term.

The first challenge that the new government, which is scheduled to be unveiled in coming days, faces will arrive this coming Wednesday, with U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s mission during Obama’s stay will be to convince him that there is no time left on Iran.

Israel is opposed to talks with Iran since it is clear to all that in their present state — one that is devoid of a threat of crippling sanctions and without the deployment of aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf — they are a complete waste of time.

The governments in Washington and Jerusalem are being run by two leaders who have just been re-elected to fresh terms. The problems, however, remain unchanged and all too familiar. Based on unequivocal statements made by both Obama and Netanyahu, 2013 could very well be the year of decision on the Iranian issue.

Officially, the White House says that Obama’s trip is designed to deliver a message to the entire region. Washington intends to bolster Israel, maintain its involvement in the Palestinian question (by way of Obama’s visit to the Palestinian Authority and Amman), protect American interests in the Middle East, and warn anyone who intends to undermine this set of goals (the Iranians). This was the message that White House aides relayed to Yaakov Amidror, Netanyahu’s national security adviser, and Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to Washington.

Preserving strong ties with the U.S. is the key to maintaining Israel’s might. Whatever is agreed to behind closed doors between Netanyahu and Obama on the Iranian issue will be the determining factor as to whether the visit was a success. It will set the tone for the future relationship between the two leaders and, by extension, the two countries.

Towards the end of his previous term in office, Netanyahu took to the podium at the U.N. General Assembly and presented a drawing of a bomb, with a red line drawn towards the top of the diagram.

Towards the end of his previous term in office, Obama tried to reach an accommodation with the Iranians, though he made it clear that he would not allow Iran to attain a nuclear weapons capability while vowing, „I’m not bluffing.”

Today, it is obvious to everyone that Israel will act alone if it feels the sword pressed against its neck. Israel expects Obama to stop the madman from Tehran just moments before he follows through on his threats, sparing the world yet another version of the ultimate international „problem child,” North Korea.

The sewing workshops put the finishing touches on the many flags bearing the Stars and Stripes that will be on display this week. The American president’s schedule is tight, and full. Officials in Jerusalem believe that Obama’s visit is meant to send a message to the key players in the region: „I’m involved.”

The main purpose of his trip is to directly appeal to the hearts and minds of Israelis rather than try to win them over by way of their elected officials. Obama will not deliver a speech to the Knesset, but he will make remarks at the International Convention Center just a few blocks away. This is his attempt to score public relations points if and when he is met with resistance from Israel’s elected officials.

The voices from Washington insist the president has no major diplomatic plan to announce for solving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Still, that doesn’t mean such a plan won’t be formulated after the visit. Obama „is here to listen,” his aides say.

It is reasonable to assume that aside from taking in the festive pre-Easter atmosphere at the Church of the Nativity and enjoying a tour of the Israel Museum’s famous Shrine of the Book, Obama will jot down his own impressions of his visits to the prime minister’s residence on Balfour Street as well as Mahmoud Abbas’ headquarters, the Muqata in Ramallah. On the Palestinian front, Netanyahu’s main goal is to persuade Obama that the Palestinians are responsible for the diplomatic stalemate.

During his just-expired term, Netanyahu was mainly preoccupied with „unveiling” the true nature of the Palestinian interlocutor. He believes that as of now there is no partner with whom to talk, and he has no plans on making concessions over principle issues. It appears that Netanyahu’s long-standing policy of telling the world to „take its hands off” Jerusalem and the settlement blocs will continue. This approach leads to continued friction with the U.S. and the European Union. Still, Netanyahu enjoys domestic support for this policy.

Obama is also scheduled to visit the President’s Residence in Jerusalem. This week, President Shimon Peres said during a trip to Strasbourg that Israel’s main goal was to make sure Obama’s visit would be a success. It can do this by „showing him that we know how to say thank you, instead of just expecting to get something,” according to the president.

Some of the more pleasant aspects of the trip include a tour (that appears to be in doubt) of the Iron Dome battery that has been deployed especially for him near Ben-Gurion Airport, a visit to an Israeli innovation exhibition that will be prepared especially for him at the Israel Museum, a concert featuring singer David D’Or, and a special dinner with the newly crowned Miss Israel, who is of Ethiopian descent.

There are numerous scenarios which could put a damper on the visit. One of them has to do with the ramifications of an Israeli protest over the issue of Jonathan Pollard. Obama is scheduled to give a speech before university students at the Jerusalem International Convention Center. It is a venue in which the president may very well hear some reaction on the issue. It will be interesting to see whether he has prepared any comments on the matter.

The fact that Obama chose to visit Israel at the start of his second term in office may be indicative of his effort to make amends for not visiting during his first term. His decision to stay away from Israel prompted criticism from his Republican opponents, although George W. Bush only visited Israel at the end of his second term in office.

Obama’s speech in Egypt and his administration’s policy toward the Egyptian government at the outset of the Arab Spring; his strategic choices in Libya and Syria; his foot-dragging on the Iranian issue; his chilly attitude toward the Israeli prime minister during Netanyahu’s visits to the U.S.; his placing the Palestinian issue at the top of his agenda; his demands for a freeze on construction beyond the Green Line; all of these are strikes against him in Jerusalem.

Now he wants to turn a new page? He was quoted as saying that Netanyahu, who made his preference clear during the recent election in the U.S., doesn’t understand his country’s real interests. Meanwhile, talk about possible „revenge” that Obama is preparing for Netanyahu during his second term, when the president is unfettered by re-election considerations, remains a topic for media commentators to chew on.

Avinoam Brug, the brother of outgoing Defense Minister Ehud Barak, said this week that the importance of the written word is reserved for historians, not journalists. In other words, the importance of the words must be measured alongside the importance of the deeds and the results as they unfold years ahead. American and Israeli officials repeatedly insist that U.S.-Israel ties have never been closer.

From an intelligence-sharing and security standpoint, the level of cooperation is excellent. Now the only thing left to do is make sure that the status quo is preserved. When a new team led by incoming Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and newly appointed Secretary of State John Kerry is taking over in Washington, and Moshe Ya’alon is set to take over the reins of the defense establishment here in Israel, there will be a need to re-establish a relationship based on trust between the Pentagon and the Kirya military HQ.

Meanwhile, in Jerusalem …

The government that Netanyahu put together is one of necessity. He may have kept the two most important portfolios for diplomacy and foreign affairs — namely the Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry — but he did authorize Tzipi Livni to oversee the diplomatic talks with the Palestinians. During an appearance at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Livni said, „The process has not yet been exhausted.”

Netanyahu will tell the nation that the coalition he plans to present with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett is „a reflection of the will of the people.” He is clearly aware that the rivalries and intrigues between the old guard and the younger generation of Likudniks are liable to harm him as well.

After he forms his government, one of the prime minister’s first orders of business will be to cancel the planned primaries in his own Likud party. With the blessing of Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu has decided that it is simply impossible to continue with the old method. The prime minister believes that the Likud Beytenu’s poor showing at the polls this past election is attributed to his party’s method of choosing candidates.

Netanyahu believes that Likud’s slate simply was not attractive enough to voters. Likudniks ousted important figures like Benny Begin, Dan Meridor and Michael Eitan. They also failed to place Avi Dichter in a realistic spot on the list while granting excessive power to those who excel at under-the-table wheeling and dealing. Many card-carrying Likud members voted in the party primaries, but then voted for other parties in the general elections.

One should not be surprised that if Netanyahu’s suggested method of picking candidates is rejected, he will take a page out of Ariel Sharon’s playbook and quit the Likud on the eve of elections to form his own party, the „Real Likud.” His joining forces with Lieberman during this past election spared him of the need to chase after individual voters and engage in blackmailing Likud members. In a new Likud, Netanyahu could run for a fourth term, renew old alliances that were discarded, and form his own steering committee.

During the Likud’s election campaign, Netanyahu warned that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah, and Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal were eagerly anticipating the results of the election to gauge whether the prime minister had been weakened. After the results came in, the Likud’s Ya’alon was asked what he thought went through the minds of Israel’s three avowed enemies. „They’re most certainly wondering, ‘Who’s this Yair Lapid guy?'” he said.

Years ago, Lapid the journalist created a television series, „War Room.” The plot was set against the backdrop of a fictitious department created by the prime minister. This department, which is manned by veterans of military intelligence, the Israel Security Service (Shin Bet), and the Mossad, makes all the critical defense and security decisions. Its personnel are considered particularly close to the prime minister. In practice, they run — and, in some instances, even rescue — the country.

Soon, Lapid will get to know a real war room. During a campaign ad run by Kadima, the narrator mocked the newly arrived party heads Lapid and Shelly Yachimovich. „Where do we live?” the narrator asked. „Running a country isn’t an episode of ‘Meet the Press.’ It’s ‘Meet Reality.'”

For Lapid, all this drama will begin to take on overtones of real life. Now, when he asks, „Where’s the money?” one of his advisers in the Finance Ministry will have to give him an answer. Lapid takes his seat at the cabinet table having scored three significant achievements. First, the new government will be devoid of the ultra-Orthodox. Secondly, he asked for a cosmetic change, and he received it in the form of a 20-minister limit (although no one is mentioning the eight deputy ministers). Thirdly, by securing portfolios that are vital for domestic issues, he followed through on a campaign pledge to tackle socioeconomic issues and institute a change in the system of government through raising the minimum vote threshold required to enter the Knesset.

Now we will see whether Yesh Atid („There is a Future”) can justify its name. We will see if there is indeed a future for Lapid. The long list of burning problems remains as is. The prime minister’s job description is always a choice between tackling what is most important and what is most urgent.

The most urgent matter is passing a state budget that will have to address a NIS 39 billion ($10.6 billion) debt and which would allow the coalition to remain intact.

Approval of the annual — or biannual, as is planned — budget will require an immediate NIS 15 billion ($4 billion) cut in government expenditures. Before the election, Netanyahu promised that taxes would not be raised and that the economic burden on the citizen would not grow more cumbersome. Lapid will have to be the one to do the dirty work.

The cobbling together of the coalition taught us that Netanyahu’s Achilles’ heel could be found in his inner circle. There is no one there to initiate, no one there to manage a few fronts all at once. There is no one to soothe hurt egos. There is no one who will brush aside criticism before it is hurled. There is no goalkeeper who will only think about what is good for Netanyahu, allowing the premier to handle the important issues.

After Obama’s historic visit, after the budget is approved, and after the springtime, Netanyahu will have to decide in which direction he is taking the country in his third term. Will he neutralize the Iranian threat? How will he conduct the multi-channel talks with the Palestinians, the Americans and the Europeans? And, no less importantly, how will he navigate the stormy socio-economic waters?