Polls uniformly predict landslide election victory for Netanyahu

Polls uniformly predict landslide election victory for Netanyahu

Polls also show that Ehud Barak’s party would not cross the electoral threshold • Poll shows that 48% of public feels Netanyahu is the most qualified candidate to serve as prime minister.

Israel Hayom Staff
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: a shoo-in at the polls. [Archive]

 
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Photo credit: AP

 

 
 
 
 
 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: a shoo-in at the polls. [Archive]

 
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Photo credit: AP

 

As Israel heads into early elections, to be held on Sept. 4, a spate of preliminary polls have emerged, all predicting a landslide victory for the current ruling party, Likud, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at its helm.

 

A poll conducted this week by the Dahaf Institute for the Knesset Channel predicts that television journalist turned politician Yair Lapid, and his Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party, will emerge from the upcoming election as the fourth largest party, with 12 Knesset seats. The same poll forecasts 31 seats for Likud, making it the largest party and cementing its status as the ruling party, 17 seats for Labor (up from the current eight) and 13 seats for Yisrael Beitenu (down from 15).

 

The Dahaf poll predicts a devastating 10 seats for Kadima, currently the largest Knesset faction with 28 seats. The polls have caused panic among Kadima MKs, who are reportedly scrambling to secure their political futures in other parties, or are pressing ousted Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni into establishing a new party.

 

The Arab bloc emerges with 11 seats collectively, the ultra-Orthodox party Shas garners eight and another powerful religious party, United Torah Judaism, gets six. The right-wing National Union and the left-wing Meretz each get four seats.

 

The poll further predicts that Aryeh Deri, once a Shas leader and who is now at odds with the party following a stint in prison for corruption, would win only two seats if he sets up an independent party to compete with Shas. In addition, the poll suggests that former Labor leader Ehud Barak, who split from the party to form his own Independence party, will not get enough votes to cross the election threshold.

 

The poll also revealed that 62% of the public feels that elections are entirely unnecessary at this time, with only 27% saying that early elections will benefit the country.

 

Another Dahaf poll, commissioned by the daily Yedioth Aharonoth, revealed several interesting conclusions: If recently deposed Kadima Chairwoman Tzipi Livni were to join Lapid’s nascent party, Yesh Atid would win 16 seats, rather than 11 seats without her, taking four seats away from Labor (bringing Labor down to 14 seats, rather than the 18 it would otherwise win). Livni’s presence or lack thereof would not affect Yisrael Beitenu one way or the other, remaining steady at 13 seats.

 

The Dahaf poll also points to Shas’ big dilemma: If Deri were to run alone, he would win three seats, probably at the expense of Shas, but if he were to lead Shas, the party would retain its current 11 seats, rather than slipping.

 

The poll predicted a total of 61 seats for the right-wing bloc, a razor thin majority in the 120-seat Knesset, making the next prime minister’s task of assembling a coalition a difficult one.

 

A separate survey, conducted by the Maariv newspaper this week, predicted an identical 31 seats for Likud, 18 seats for Labor and 12 seats for Yisrael Beitenu. Kadima and Yesh Atid emerged neck and neck at fourth place with 11 seats each.

 

The survey further forecast 10 seats for the Arab bloc, eight for Shas, six for United Torah Judaism, five for Meretz and four for the New National Religious Party and National Union respectively.

 

The Maariv survey concurred that Independence would not cross the election threshold.

 

The daily Haaretz also conducted an independent poll, which yielded similar results. The poll revealed that 48% of the public feels that Netanyahu is the most qualified candidate to serve as prime minister, followed by the distant second Shelly Yachimovich, the Labor chairwoman.