How will Kadima’s exit from the coalition affect the haredi draft?

With Kadima’s resignation from the coalition, the chances of reaching an alternative enlistment law to the Tal Law by August 1, the deadline set by the High Court of Justice, are slipping away.

Earlier this year, the High Court of Justice ruled that the Tal Law, which currently exempts haredim (ultra-Orthodox) from mandatory military service, was unconstitutional and must be repealed. Efforts to formulate a more equitable law to fill its place have so far failed. Should the government fail to legislate a substitute by the August 1 expiration, the Defense Service Law of 1949 will go into effect. The significance of this happening is that every citizen will be required by law to enlist in the Israel Defense Forces and the only body authorized to determine who is drafted or not will be the IDF, itself.

This situation will not necessarily be bad for the ultra-Orthodox. The defense establishment has already stated its intention to draft conscripts from the haredi sector based on guidelines established by the government in 2011 — in other words, based on a gradual increase of enlistments.

According to the government guidelines, the IDF is prepared to draft 1,550 haredi conscripts in 2012.

Officials from within the defense establishment have said that if a new law is not legislated, the IDF will continue drafting an additional 300 to 400 conscripts per year, half of whom will be allocated to the IDF and half to national service. The IDF drafted 1,280 haredi conscripts in 2011.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak issued a statement Tuesday saying that the Defense Ministry intended to present the government with a new temporary order to replace the Defense Service Law, to standardize haredi enlistment over the next two years based on „the High Court’s ruling, the IDF’s specific needs and the justified public demand for equality in the shouldering of the national burden. „

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s Office was examining the possibility of presenting the government with a bill, as early as Sunday, based on the outlines proposed by Vice Premier Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon and Coalition Chairman MK Zeev Elkin. Their outline calls for setting gradually increasing recruitment goals, rather than setting a predetermined number of exemptions, which is what Kadima had been gunning for.

In addition, incentives will be offered to haredim who wish to enlist at the age of 18, and they will be able to postpone service until the age of 22. At the age of 22, they will be able to choose between military or national service. Those aged 23 to 26 will no longer be eligible to enlist in the IDF and will have to choose between serving in the prisons service, Magen David Adom emergency medical service, fire department, or police. Furthermore, the bill stipulates personal penalties for draft evaders, and general penalties for yeshivot (religious schools) that aid draft evaders. Under this bill, Arab citizens are required to serve only in national service.

At this stage, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaning toward rejecting Yisrael Beytenu’s demand to include the Arab sector in mandatory IDF service. Netanyahu has also rejected Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman’s demand to draft all haredim when they turn 18 as „unrealistic.”

The assumption is that the bill will be approved by a majority in the cabinet, but not in the Knesset. Therefore, there is still a possibility that Netanyahu will call early elections for February of 2013.

Energy and Water Minister Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beytenu), however, has announced that his party will present its own bill calling for universal draft at the age of 18.