DM Ehud Barak’s Comments to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee

Following are Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s comments to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee earlier today (Monday), 2.1.12. He presented a broad overview of the strategic environment, as well as the political and security situation at the beginning of 2012:

„It is the duty and responsibility of the defense establishment to formulate and provide a response, in order to be sufficiently prepared for all the developments and potential turning points in our region.

Even those who are not specialists in security and defense understand the mandatory requirement for both sufficient resources and attention in order to address the regional challenges.

The chain of events and their magnitude present a ‘strategic warning’ that demands a different type of response.”

On the regional picture, DM Barak noted that the State of Israel currently stands at a crossroads with many multi-dimensional challenges. The Middle East lies in a transition phase whose dominant and central feature is the “Arab Spring”, whose central characteristics are uncertainty and instability. 

According to the DM, it is still too early to assess and foresee the direction that this wave will take. However, the old order in the region has been seriously undermined and a new order must take its place. The “earthquake”, turmoil, and protests will continue at various intensities. The main characteristics are:

Growing importance of the crowd and the public

A rise in the hostilities towards Israel as a broad unifying theme

An increase in the Islamic branches even if the latter are not united (Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist, moderate and pragmatic Islamists). 

The DM added that it is still too early to determine whether the “Arab Spring” will turn into an “Islamic Winter”, and yet, from an historical point of view, there are enough case studies indicating that we need to stay alert. 

On that note, the DM addressed the way democracy is perceived in the Arab world. It is our desire that many regimes in the region would turn into democracies, even though there is currently a gap in the conceptual understanding of Iran (where the rule of extremists took over the leadership of the revolution) and Tunisia, Morocco, and Gaza where Islamist parties have risen through democratic processes.

The DM emphasized that there are new potential operational challenges in the North and the South. The Sinai could turn into a greenhouse for the flourishing of terrorist groups. In the North, there could be potential ramifications from Syria in the Golan Heights and indeed in wider territories as a result of [Assad] losing control.

All of this demands the necessary preparedness and alertness from the defense establishment. In the background lurks Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran as well as a de-legitimization campaign against Israel whose purpose is to isolate and limit Israel’s freedom of action.

DM Barak noted that it is both the responsibility and duty of the defense establishment to formulate a response and be prepared for any development or geopolitical shift.

Even those who are not specialists in security and defense understand the mandatory requirement for resources and attention in order to address the regional challenges. These challenges increase the probability of an escalation and this will continue for a number of years until we have in our region both stability and clarity. The minister highlighted that the combination of these events and their magnitude constitutes a “strategic warning” that demands a different type of response.

DM Barak noted that at the current time an economic crisis is driving the leadership of the West to focus and deal with their internal stability, thus distracting their attention from global issues. 2012 will place challenges and opportunities before us; opportunities for both gains and unexpected scenarios. The main focus of their attention, as mentioned, will turn towards politico-economic challenges whilst the rest of the “burning issues” will be left to crisis management.

Regarding the US, the DM emphasized that the economic crisis in the US leaves a cluttered table in terms of internal issues. This damages the ability and readiness of the US to project power. Despite this, America has been and remains the only superpower.